The Netherlands host Greece at the Johan Cruijff Arena tonight (kick-off 7.45pm UK) in a Nations League A2 clash that could settle who finishes top of the group. Both sides are unbeaten after four games and level on eight points, with the Dutch ahead on goals scored.
What is at stake
Only the top two in the group reach the quarter-finals in March. A Greek win would clinch the group. The Netherlands go through with a win, or with a draw if Germany lose to Serbia in Belgrade on the same night. Both teams then have one game left on Monday: the Dutch travel to Germany and Greece host Serbia.
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Netherlands team news
Xavi’s side have been hit hard in the build-up.
- Virgil van Dijk (out): the captain withdrew on 9 November through lack of fitness. It is the first time in nearly two years he will not start for the Netherlands.
- Brian Brobbey (out): also withdrew on 9 November.
- Ryan Gravenberch, Jeremie Frimpong, Jorrel Hato and Nathan Ake (out): all injured.
- Frenkie de Jong (back): returns after missing time with a knee injury picked up at the World Cup.
- Donyell Malen (back): fit again after a minor knee problem and expected to lead the line.
- Cody Gakpo (back): returns to the squad.
- Ian Maatsen (back): returns at left-back.
Xavi has been unbeaten in his first four games in charge (two wins, two draws) since taking over from Ronald Koeman, who left after the World Cup last-32 exit.
Predicted XI (4-3-3): Verbruggen; J. Timber, Van Hecke, Van de Ven, Maatsen; De Jong, Veerman, Reijnders; Summerville, Malen, Gakpo.
Greece team news
Ivan Jovanovic is without two regulars.
- Christos Zafeiris and Manolis Saliakas (suspended): both reached the yellow card limit in the 0-0 draw with Germany.
- Dimitris Kourbelis (doubtful): has an ankle sprain.
- Christos Tzolis (doubt): in the squad but his fitness is uncertain after a muscle problem.
- Anastasios Bakasetas (back): returns after missing the first four group games.
- Konstantinos Mavropanos (fit): expected to anchor the defence.
- Christos Mouzakitis: is away with the Under-21s, and Anderlecht’s Ilias Koutsoupias has had a first senior call-up to cover in midfield.
- Giannis Michailidis: reported injured.
Predicted XI (4-4-2): Tzolakis; Vagiannidis, Mavropanos, Koulierakis, Tsimikas; Masouras, Androutsos, Triantis (Kourbelis if fit), Kyziridis; Pavlidis, Ioannidis.
Recent form
Netherlands, last four
| Date | Result | Goals |
|---|---|---|
| 24 Sep | Netherlands 1-1 Germany | Gakpo 90+2 |
| 27 Sep | Serbia 1-2 Netherlands | Meerdink (penalty), Meerdink |
| 1 Oct | Greece 2-2 Netherlands | Van Dijk, Reijnders |
| 4 Oct | Netherlands 2-1 Serbia | Koopmeiners, Zirkzee |
The Dutch have scored in every one of those games, and five of their seven goals came after half-time. The flip side is that they have conceded in all four.
Greece, last four
| Date | Result | Goals |
|---|---|---|
| 24 Sep | Serbia 1-2 Greece | Tzolis, Douvikas 90+4 |
| 27 Sep | Germany 0-1 Greece | Kourbelis |
| 1 Oct | Greece 2-2 Netherlands | Ioannidis, Masouras |
| 4 Oct | Greece 0-0 Germany | none |
Greece have won twice away from home, at Serbia and at Germany, and drawn both home games. They have conceded only three goals in four matches and have five different scorers.
Head-to-head since November 2022
| Date | Result | Yellow cards |
|---|---|---|
| 7 Sep 2023 (Euro 2024 qualifier) | Netherlands 3-0 Greece | 6 |
| 16 Oct 2023 (Euro 2024 qualifier) | Greece 0-1 Netherlands | 6, plus a red for Greece boss Gus Poyet |
| 1 Oct 2026 (Nations League) | Greece 2-2 Netherlands | 3 |
The Netherlands have won two and drawn one of the three, scoring eight goals to Greece’s two. In October’s game in Thessaloniki, Greece led 2-0 at half-time through Fotis Ioannidis and Georgios Masouras. Van Dijk pulled one back from a corner on 59 minutes and Tijjani Reijnders levelled on 89, with two Denzel Dumfries goals ruled out for offside. Greece’s only win over the Dutch came in a friendly back in 2016.
Players to watch
Donyell Malen (Netherlands): the Roma forward has eight goals in nine Serie A games and is in the best form of his career. He is the likeliest source of Dutch goals now Brobbey is out.
Tijjani Reijnders (Netherlands): two goals in the Dutch’s last two meetings with Greece’s group rivals and the player Greece’s two central midfielders will struggle to pick up as he arrives between the lines.
Fotis Ioannidis and Vangelis Pavlidis (Greece): the strike pair are Greece’s route into the game. Counter-attacks into the channels either side of the Dutch centre-backs, with Van Dijk absent, are their best chance.
Predictions
| Market | Prediction |
|---|---|
| Full-time score | Netherlands 2-1 Greece |
| Half-time score | 1-1 |
| Most likely first goalscorer | Donyell Malen |
| Greece’s most likely scorer | Fotis Ioannidis |
| Yellow cards | 4 |
| Red cards | 0 |
| Both teams to score | Yes |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 |
| Corners | Netherlands to win the count, 10 or more in total |
| Team to score first | Netherlands |
| Late goal | A goal in the last 10 minutes or stoppage time |
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Why we think it ends 2-1
The Dutch score in every game and have home advantage, and De Jong, Malen and Gakpo coming back gives Xavi far more control in midfield and attack than he had in Thessaloniki. Greece have problems of their own, with two suspensions and doubts over Kourbelis and Tzolis, but their counter-attack should still carry enough threat to find a goal. Most previews land on 2-1, though a draw is a real danger.
First goal, first half
In five of the six recent group games that produced a goal, the opener came inside 35 minutes. Malen is the pick to score it. Gakpo and Meerdink are the alternatives, but first-scorer picks are always low-probability even for the favourite. The Dutch have scored after half-time in each of their last seven games, so we expect it to be level at the break before they win it in the second half.
Cards
The head-to-head games average five yellow cards. Greece’s recent games average about 4.25 and the Netherlands’ around 3.5 to 4, so four yellows looks the sensible number. Likely Greek bookings include Kostas Tsimikas, Kourbelis if he plays, and Panagiotis Retsos. For the Dutch, Quinten Timber, Joey Veerman and Reijnders are the names to watch. No player has been sent off in any of the recent meetings or group games. The only red in the head-to-head record was for Poyet.
Late drama
Three of the last seven games in this group had a goal at 89 minutes or later: Gakpo, Reijnders and Douvikas. With both sides fighting for a quarter-final place, another late goal would not be a surprise.
