Belgium host Italy at the King Baudouin Stadium in Brussels on Sunday 15 November, with kick-off at 7.45pm UK time. It is the final round of Nations League A Group 1 and a place in the March quarter-finals is up for grabs. Belgium won the reverse fixture 2-0 in Rome in September, so Italy arrive with a score to settle.
What is at stake
Italy and France both have 10 points, with Italy top on goals scored. Belgium are third on 9 after beating Türkiye in Izmir on Thursday. The top two go through to the quarter-finals, which means Italy only need a draw, while Belgium have to win. France host Türkiye in Bordeaux on the same night, so there will be one eye on that game too. Third place would leave Belgium facing a relegation play-off.
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Belgium team news
- Romelu Lukaku (doubtful): a hip problem kept him out of the win in Türkiye.
- Roméo Lavia (returns): back in midfield after serving a one-match suspension on Thursday.
- Jeremy Doku (fit): returned from injury in Izmir and was the most dangerous player on the pitch.
- Thibaut Courtois (out): still taking a planned break from international duty.
Mark van Bommel, in his first campaign in charge, has been using a 4-3-3.
Predicted XI (4-3-3): Lammens; Castagne, Ngoy, Mechele, De Cuyper; Tielemans, Lavia, De Bruyne; Moreira, De Ketelaere, Doku.
Italy team news
- Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Giacomo Raspadori and Moise Kean (reported out): all linked with injury absences.
- Riccardo Calafiori (doubtful): a fitness concern after the France game.
- Davide Frattesi and Nicolò Cambiaghi (doubtful): a muscle strain and an ankle problem respectively, with reports differing on how serious they are.
Roberto Mancini is in his second spell as Italy boss and has been getting the best out of a young, fast-improving group.
Predicted XI (4-3-3): Donnarumma; Kayode, Scalvini, Bastoni, Calafiori; Barella, Tonali, Frattesi; Cambiaghi, P. Esposito, S. Esposito.
Recent form
Belgium
| Date | Result | Goals |
|---|---|---|
| 12 Nov 2026 | Türkiye 1-2 Belgium | De Bruyne 27′, De Ketelaere 30′ |
| 5 Oct 2026 | France 4-1 Belgium | Lukebakio 35′ |
| 2 Oct 2026 | Belgium 3-0 Türkiye | De Bruyne 10′, 59′, Lukaku 76′ |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Belgium 0-1 France | None (Olise 88′ for France) |
Belgium tend to start well, with four of their last six goals coming in the first half, but they have been caught late. France scored four times in the last 13 minutes of normal time on 5 October and Olise struck two minutes from time a week earlier. Their fightback in Izmir will have done wonders for confidence.
Italy
| Date | Result | Goals |
|---|---|---|
| 12 Nov 2026 | Italy 3-1 France | P. Esposito 26′, 75′ (pen), Frattesi 63′ |
| 5 Oct 2026 | Italy 3-1 Türkiye | Scamacca 26′, Calafiori 64′, P. Esposito 87′ |
| 2 Oct 2026 | France 1-1 Italy | Bastoni 68′ |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Türkiye 1-4 Italy | Four scored, including Kayode and P. Esposito |
Italy are unbeaten in four since losing in Rome and have scored five of their last seven goals in the second half. They have also been the team to fall behind in two of their last three matches, though they have shown a knack for hitting back.
Head-to-head since November 2022
| Date | Result | Yellow cards |
|---|---|---|
| 25 Sep 2026 | Italy 0-2 Belgium | 8 |
| 14 Nov 2024 | Belgium 0-1 Italy | 5 |
| 10 Oct 2024 | Italy 2-2 Belgium | 3 (plus one red for Italy) |
Three meetings, one win each and a draw, with an average of just over five yellow cards a game. Belgium were comfortable winners in Rome, with Godts and Lukebakio on the scoresheet, and five of their players were booked.
Players to watch
Kevin De Bruyne (Belgium). He scored twice in the 3-0 win over Türkiye on 2 October and found the net again in Izmir on Thursday. When Belgium need a big moment, he is the man who delivers it.
Pio Esposito (Italy). The Inter striker has nine goals in 14 caps and scored twice against France, including a calm penalty. He has been Italy’s most reliable source of goals this autumn.
Jeremy Doku (Belgium). Back from injury, he attempted 15 dribbles against Türkiye and set up De Bruyne’s equaliser. Italy’s full-backs will have their hands full on the flanks.
Predictions
| Market | Prediction |
|---|---|
| Full-time score | Belgium 2-1 Italy |
| Half-time score | Belgium 1-0 Italy |
| Most likely first goalscorer | Kevin De Bruyne |
| Italy’s most likely scorer | Pio Esposito |
| Yellow cards | 5 |
| Red cards | None |
| Both teams to score | Yes |
| Total goals | 3 |
| Corners | 10 to 12 |
| Team to score first | Belgium |
| Late goal (80 minutes or later) | Yes |
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Why we think it ends 2-1
Italy only need a point, but Belgium have to chase the win, and they have the attacking quality at home to do it. Belgium have kept five clean sheets in their last seven home matches and beat Italy 2-0 in Rome earlier this autumn. Italy are in form and Esposito will get his chance, so we expect them to find a way back in, but Belgium’s front line should just edge it.
First goal
Belgium scored the first goal in the Rome meeting on 20 minutes and have been quick starters in most of their games. De Bruyne, with Doku feeding him from the left, looks the likeliest to open the scoring. For Italy, Esposito is the obvious pick to level.
Cards and late drama
The last three meetings have averaged just over five yellow cards, and eight were shown in Rome in September, so five bookings looks sensible with so much on the line. With a quarter-final place at stake and both sides prone to late goals, we are expecting something after the 80th minute.
