Spain host England at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano in Madrid tonight (Sunday 15 November), kicking off at 7.45pm UK time, in the final round of Nations League Group A3. The world champions beat Thomas Tuchel’s side 3-2 at Wembley in September and are unbeaten in more than 40 matches. Both teams have already booked their place in the quarter-finals, but top spot is still up for grabs.
What is at stake
Spain have won all five of their group games and sit on 15 points. A draw is enough for them to finish top. England are on 12 points after beating Croatia 2-1 on Thursday, and only a win in Madrid will see them overtake the hosts and take first place on goal difference. England have not won on Spanish soil since 2018, and they will want to make up for a Wembley defeat in which Harry Kane missed a penalty at 2-1.
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Spain team news
- Out: Dani Olmo and Rodri are injured, and Eric Garcia also missed the trip to Prague through injury.
- Returning: Lamine Yamal is fit after being left in Barcelona for the Czechia game with a minor inflammation problem. Mikel Oyarzabal is also available again after missing that match with flu.
- Manager: Luis de la Fuente made seven changes in Prague and still won 2-0, so he has plenty of options.
Predicted XI (4-2-3-1): Simon; Pubill, Cubarsi, Huijsen, Cucurella; Ruiz, Pedri; Yamal, Lopez, Baena; Torres.
England team news
- Out: Marc Guehi and Bukayo Saka are ruled out.
- Doubtful: Ezri Konsa is a doubt after a knock, while Djed Spence is said to have shaken off his.
- Returning: Myles Lewis-Skelly is back from suspension.
- Manager: Thomas Tuchel wants a positive performance and ideally a statement win, with Kane in the form of his life after breaking the England caps record on Thursday.
Predicted XI (4-2-3-1): Pickford; Alexander-Arnold, Quansah, Burn, Hall; Rice, Anderson; Rogers, Bellingham, Gordon; Kane.
Recent form
Spain
| Date | Result | Goals |
|---|---|---|
| 12 Nov | Czechia 0-2 Spain | Baena (pen), Pubill |
| 6 Oct | Croatia 1-2 Spain | Merino (2) |
| 3 Oct | Spain 3-1 Czechia | Yamal, Rodri, Merino |
| 29 Sep | Spain 4-1 Croatia | Yamal (2), Pubill, N Williams |
Four wins from four, but they have had to work for them. Spain have scored late in several of these games, with Pubill’s goal in the 96th minute in Prague the latest example, and they hit the woodwork three times in that win. Croatia led them in Split before Merino turned it round off the bench.
England
| Date | Result | Goals |
|---|---|---|
| 12 Nov | England 2-1 Croatia | Rogers, Kane (pen) |
| 6 Oct | England 3-0 Czechia | Coufal (og), Kane (2) |
| 3 Oct | Croatia 0-7 England | Kane (2), Saka (2), Bellingham, Gordon, Rogers |
| 29 Sep | Czechia 0-2 England | Gordon, Kane |
England have won every game since the Spain defeat and Kane has scored in each of them. The worry is at the back, where Quansah’s error let Croatia equalise on Thursday and the Wembley defeat to Spain came from two gifted goals.
Head-to-head since November 2022
| Date | Result | Yellow cards |
|---|---|---|
| 26 Sep 2026 | England 2-3 Spain (Nations League) | 3 (O’Reilly, Guehi, Bellingham) |
| 14 Jul 2024 | Spain 2-1 England (Euro 2024 final) | 4 (Kane, Olmo, Stones, Watkins) |
Spain have won both meetings, each by a single goal, and both teams scored every time. Oyarzabal got the winner in Berlin and again at Wembley, and it was Yamal who struck after two minutes in September. The pair of games produced seven yellow cards and no reds.
Players to watch
Lamine Yamal – The Barcelona winger has scored in each of Spain’s first three Nations League games, including that early goal at Wembley. He is back after a short injury scare and England’s full-backs will have a long night.
Harry Kane – England’s record cap holder and record scorer has 92 goals for his country and has scored in every game since the Spain defeat. He will be desperate to make up for the penalty he missed at Wembley.
Anthony Gordon – In sparkling form for Barcelona and England, Gordon scored against Spain in September and is a constant threat on the counter. If England are going to hurt Spain, it will probably be through him.
Predictions
| Market | Prediction |
|---|---|
| Full-time score | Spain 2-1 England |
| Half-time score | 1-1 |
| Most likely first goalscorer | Lamine Yamal |
| England’s most likely scorer | Harry Kane |
| Yellow cards | 4 |
| Red cards | 0 |
| Both teams to score | Yes |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 |
| Corners | 9 to 11 |
| Team to score first | Spain |
| Late goal (after 75 minutes) | Yes |
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Why we think it ends 2-1
Both of the last two meetings finished 2-1 or 3-2 to Spain, and goals have been guaranteed in this fixture. Spain are stronger at home and with Yamal and Oyarzabal back they will carry the bigger threat. England have scored freely all campaign though, so we expect them to find a way past Simon once.
First goal
Yamal has scored early against England before and Spain tend to start quickly. Having a world-class winger against a patched-up England back line makes the hosts the likeliest to score first.
Cards
The last two games between these sides produced three and four yellow cards, an average of three and a half, and neither had a red. Pubill has picked up five yellows in 12 starts for Atletico and will likely have his hands full, so we are going for four bookings and no sending off.
Late drama
Oyarzabal’s winners came in the 86th minute in Berlin and the 74th at Wembley, and Spain scored at the death in both of their last two group games. With England needing a win to top the group, we expect plenty of late pressure and at least one goal after the 75th minute.
